Somerset County vs. Maine Comparative Trends Analysis: Per Capita Personal Income Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Somerset County: 2022 PCI = $47,306 2022 Percent of State = 78.06% Maine: 2022 PCI = $60,599 Per Capita Income (PCI) is one of the most widely used indicators for gauging the economic performance and changing fortunes of local economies. It is used as a yardstick to assess the economic well being of a region's residents and the quality of consumer markets. It serves as a barometer for calibrating the economic performance of a region over time and to judge differences in relative economic prosperity between regions. Shifting trends in local per capita income growth have important social and political ramifications and significant implications in formulating local economic development strategies and initiatives. Data Definition: This measure of income is calculated as the total personal income of the residents of an area divided by the population of the area. Per capita personal income is often used as an indicator of consumers' purchasing power and of the economic well-being of the residents of an area. Personal income is measured as a flow throughout the year, while the measurement of population is at one point in mid-year. Therefore, per capita income is distorted if a significant change in population occurs during the year. For smaller counties in particular, per capita income in any given year may be exceptionally high or low for the short run because of unusual local conditions, such as a bumper crop, a catastrophe, or a major construction project as the building of a dam or nuclear power plant. Farm incomes are notorious for being especially volatile year-to-year, owing to changing weather, commodity market conditions, and alterations in government programs. Therefore, the per capita income of farm-dependent counties may exhibit sharp fluctuations over time. The presence of large institutional populations--such as residents attending a local college or the residents of a local prison or state mental institution--can significantly lower the per capita income estimates of an area. Such results may not reflect the relative economic well being of the non-institutional population and may mislead if care is not given to their interpretation. Somerset County Per Capita Personal Income, 1970-2022 Current vs. Constant Dollars Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts Somerset County's annual per capita personal income over 1970-2022 in current and constant (2017) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of Somerset County over time. When measured in current dollars, Somerset County's per capita personal income increased 1,409.46%, from $3,134 in 1970 to $47,306 in 2022. When measured in constant 2017 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 157.11%, from $15,855 in 1970 to $40,766 in 2022. Real Per Capita Personal Income, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Somerset County's and Maine's annual real per capita personal income for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate real per capita personal income patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Somerset County's real per capita personal income rose from $15,592 in 1969 to $40,766 in 2022, for a net gain of $25,174, or 161.46%. In comparison, Maine's real per capita personal income increased from $17,275 in 1969 to $52,221 in 2022, for a net gain of $34,946, or 202.29%. Real Per Capita Personal Income Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Somerset County's real per capita personal income growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Maine, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real per capita personal income in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the real per capita personal incomes in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real per capita personal income growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Somerset County's overall real per capita personal income growth was 161.46% over 1969-2022 trailed Maine's increase of 202.29%, and fell below the United States' increase of 171.04%. Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of the U.S. Average: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Figure 4 displays the trends for per capita personal income relative to the national average by tracing Somerset County and Maine per capita personal income as a percent of the national average over 1969-2022. In 1969, Somerset County's per capita personal income amounted to 74.90% of the national average; in 2022, it approximated 72.26%. Similarly, in 1969, Maine's per capita personal income totaled 82.99% of the national average; in 2022, it consisted of 92.56%. Somerset County Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 5. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 5 again illustrates the annual percent change in Somerset County's real per capita personal income since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Somerset County's annual real per capita personal income growth rate averaged 1.27%. It averaged 3.16% in the 1980s, 2.02% throughout the 1990s, 2.17% throughout the 2000s, 0.41% in the 2010s, 3.23% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Real Per Capita Personal Income Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 6. Figure 6 compares the decade average growth rates for Somerset County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Maine and the nation. As the chart reveals, Somerset County's average annual real per capita personal income growth posted below Maine's average throughout the 1970s (1.27% vs. 2.35%), trailed Maine's average in the 1980s (3.16% vs. 3.30%), exceeded Maine's average in the 1990s (2.02% vs. 1.80%), surpassed Maine's average in the 2000s (2.17% vs. 1.55%), posted below Maine's average throughout the 2010s (0.41% vs. 1.48%), and outpaced Maine's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (3.23% vs. 2.74%). Finally, relative to nationwide real per capita personal income growth trends, Somerset County lagged the nation throughout the 1970s (1.27% vs. 2.37%), outgained the nation throughout the 1980s (3.16% vs. 2.19%), outperformed the nation throughout the 1990s (2.02% vs. 2.01%), outperformed the nation during the 2000s (2.17% vs. 1.10%), trailed the nation throughout the 2010s (0.41% vs. 1.97%), and led the nation over 2020-2022 (3.23% vs. 1.78%).
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