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 Outline of Analysis
| Lincoln County vs. Maine Comparative Trends Analysis: Per Capita Personal Income Growth and Change, 1969-2017 Introduction  Lincoln County: 2017 PCI = $48,619 2017 Percent of State = 104.7% Maine: 2017 PCI = $46,455 Per Capita Income (PCI) is one of the most widely used indicators for gauging the economic performance and changing fortunes of local economies. It is used as a yardstick to assess the economic well being of a region's residents and the quality of consumer markets. It serves as a barometer for calibrating the economic performance of a region over time and to judge differences in relative economic prosperity between regions. Shifting trends in local per capita income growth have important social and political ramifications and significant implications in formulating local economic development strategies and initiatives. Data Definition: Personal income is the income that is received by persons from all sources. It is calculated as the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and personal current tranfer receipts, less contributions for government social insurance. This measure of income is calculated as the personal income of the residents of a given area divided by the resident population of the area. In computing per capita personal income, BEA uses the Census Bureau's annual midyear population estimates. Personal income is measured as a flow throughout the year, while the measurement of population is at one point in mid-year. Therefore, per capita income is distorted if a significant change in population occurs during the year. For smaller counties in particular, per capita income in any given year may be exceptionally high or low for the short run because of unusual local conditions, such as a bumper crop, a catastrophe, or a major construction project as the building of a dam or nuclear power plant. Farm incomes are notorious for being especially volatile year-to-year, owing to changing weather, commodity market conditions, and alterations in government programs. Therefore, the per capita income of farm-dependent counties may exhibit sharp fluctuations over time. The presence of large institutional populations--such as residents attending a local college or the residents of a local prison or state mental institution--can significantly lower the per capita income estimates of an area. Such results may not reflect the relative economic well being of the non-institutional population and may mislead if care is not given to their interpretation. Lincoln County Per Capita Personal Income, 1969-2017 Current vs. Constant Dollars  Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts Lincoln County's annual per capita personal income over 1969-2017 in current and constant (2012) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of Lincoln County over time. When measured in current dollars, Lincoln County's per capita personal income increased 1,291.2%, from $3,495 in 1969 to $48,619 in 2017. When measured in constant 2012 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 162.5%, from $17,460 in 1969 to $45,835 in 2017. Real Per Capita Personal Income, 1969-2017  Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Lincoln County's and Maine's annual real per capita personal income for the period 1969-2017 to illustrate real per capita personal income patterns over time. During this 49-year period, Lincoln County's real per capita personal income rose from $17,460 in 1969 to $45,835 in 2017, for a net gain of $28,375, or 162.5%. In comparison, Maine's real per capita personal income increased from $16,203 in 1969 to $43,796 in 2017, for a net advance of $27,592, or 170.3%. Real Per Capita Personal Income Indices (1969=100): 1969-2017  Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Lincoln County's real per capita personal income growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Maine, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real per capita personal income in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the real per capita personal incomes in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real per capita personal income growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Lincoln County's overall real per capita personal income growth was 162.5% over 1969-2017 trailed Maine's increase of 170.3%, and topped the United States' increase of 147.9%. Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of the U.S. Average: 1969-2017  Figure 4. Figure 4 depicts the trends for per capita personal income relative to the national average by tracing Lincoln County and Maine per capita personal income as a percent of the national average over 1969-2017. In 1969, Lincoln County's per capita personal income amounted to 88.9% of the national average; in 2017, it approximated 94.1%. Similarly, in 1969, Maine's per capita personal income totaled 82.5% of the national average; in 2017, it consisted of 90.0%. Lincoln County Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2017  Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Lincoln County's real per capita personal income growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2017. The average annual percent change for the entire 48-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Lincoln County's real per capita personal income grew at an annual rate of 2.06% over 1970-2017. The county recorded its highest growth in 1985 (8.61%) and posted its lowest growth in 2005 (-3.06%). In 2017, Lincoln County's real per capita personal income grew by 1.34% Lincoln County Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2017  Figure 6. Over the past four decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again depicts the annual percent change in Lincoln County's real per capita personal income since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2017. During the 1970s, Lincoln County's annual real per capita personal income growth rate averaged 2.11%. It averaged 3.81% in the 1980s, 1.32% in the 1990s, 1.43% during the 2000s, and 1.53% thus far this decade (2010 to 2017). Real Per Capita Personal Income Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade  Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Lincoln County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Maine and the nation. As the chart reveals, Lincoln County's average annual real per capita personal income growth lagged Maine's average throughout the 1970s (2.11% vs. 2.33%), outgained Maine's average during the 1980s (3.81% vs. 3.31%), lagged Maine's average in the 1990s (1.32% vs. 1.81%), fell below Maine's average during the 2000s (1.43% vs. 1.58%), and exceeded Maine's average over the 8 year period of the last decade, 2010-2017 (1.53% vs. 1.40%). Finally, relative to nationwide real per capita personal income growth trends, Lincoln County posted below the nation during the 1970s (2.11% vs. 2.35%), outperformed the nation in the 1980s (3.81% vs. 2.21%), recorded underneath the nation in the 1990s (1.32% vs. 2.02%), exceeded the nation in the 2000s (1.43% vs. 1.10%), and lagged the nation over 2010-2017 (1.53% vs. 1.95%).
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